This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 87th edition of the Market Outlook here at Ostium Insights, we’ll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, looking at price-action, positioning and event risk for NDX, Gold, WTI Crude, BTC and ETH.
Let’s first take a look at the very quiet week ahead on the macroeconomic calendar, except for the ECB interest rate decision:
TUESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (4-WEEK AVG): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 19.75K)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 220K VS PREVIOUS 215K)
THURSDAY: ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 2.4% VS PREVIOUS 2.4%)
FRIDAY: US S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (JULY) (PREL.): (CONSENSUS 54.5 VS PREVIOUS 53.9)
FRIDAY: US S&P GLOBAL SERVICES PMI (JULY) (PREL.): (CONSENSUS 51 VS PREVIOUS 51.2)
Now, let’s dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at NDX:
NDX:
Price: $28,920
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for NDX, we can see that price continues to chop and consolidate over recent weeks, as expected, with last week rejecting at local resistance around $29,720 and dropping into support at $28,575, where the anchored VWAP from the 2026 low sits. This is range support since May and price is now below the July VWAP but with no real momentum in either direction and no structural breakdown as of yet. Weekly RSI has reset nicely off those prior extremes and thus would be supportive of continuation higher as long as we do not break structure here. Acceptance on the weekly above last week’s high would look like a local shift and I would expect to see continuation to the other end of the range near all-time highs at $30,800 from there; above which we would be looking at the next leg of this bull market beginning, with $31,660 as minor resistance above. Only if we flip this $28.2k-$28.5k area into support turned resistance would things look bearish, in my view, where the index could see a deeper correction towards $26.5kish.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, we can see that momentum has shifted bearish as both RSI and AO have confirmed but price is failing to break and close below key support, having wicked below that anchored VWAP but closed back above $28.5k. Whilst this area is holding firm, it is difficult to be bearish, but as mentioned above if we do lose this level and flip it into resistance, whilst daily momentum has turned bearish, that’s where you could see a move down towards the 200dMA and prior all-time highs. Until then, I would be more convinced that the chop persists and momentum is not really useful here until we get price breaking either side of the range. Not much else to add here for the time being…
Gold:
Price: $4027
Weekly:
Looking firstly at the weekly timeframe for Gold, we can see that price has been grinding lower since losing that 365d rolling VWAP and major support at the 2026 open ~$4326. It has failed to really capitulate lower, however, instead just wicking down and then chopping back up again but holding below key support turned resistance. Weekly momentum has not yet shown signs of trend exhaustion, though this is not a requirement of a bottoming formation, of course. We do have some minor support below us at $3877, but if we were to get a final capitulation leg lower I would be looking at that $3640 level down into the $3500 untested prior resistance. In that zone, I am 100% a buyer for the long term. However, if we continue to fail to break meaningfully lower here, I would be looking for a reclaim of the support turned resistance cluster overhead as the key signal for seller exhaustion, with acceptance back above the 365d rVWAP at $4400 the strongest sign of a durable bottom being in, in my opinion.
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see that the momentum shift has occurred on this timeframe, with the most recent break and close through $4045 support showing trend exhaustion, but despite that price still remains capped by the 30d rVWAP and is only marginally holding above the $3953 low. The mere existence of some divergence here does not mean anything - we need to see this validated by price-action with some strength, and for me this would be a reclaim of the 30d rVWAP as support, which has capped price since May. Flip that with daily RSI back above 50 and we have the beginnings of a move higher back into that 2026 open at $4326 for the yearly open retest, where I would expect some sellers to step in on the first attempt; and, as mentioned above, only when we clear that and reclaim the 365d rVWAP would I be confident in long-only/buy-the-dip mode back towards all-time highs. Acceptance below $3953 = wick into $3877, which is the final level of support before a more significant capitulation leg.
WTI Crude:
Price: $82
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly, we can see that price bottomed out after bear trapping below reclaimed support at $70, wicking into $67 and then v-reversing off that low over the subsequent two weeks to reclaim the 200wMA and multiple levels of prior support, with last week closing back above $81. We are now retesting the anchored VWAP from the 2022 highs and the 365d rVWAP at $85, which is acting as strong resistance at present, with weekly structure and momentum bearish. To be honest, I think it is going to be difficult to push Crude meaningfully back above $88 here and would be looking for reasons to short if we get up into that range between $88-$94, where I think the r/r is maximal for shorts. That said, there is also a good chance this area below $86 caps out the rally too, but until we see more price-action it is difficult to be confident.
Nonetheless, this is absolutely not where I would be looking for fresh longs - as mentioned in June the area to look for longs was below $76 for a move back towards $86 and we are now there. If we do reject here and close back below the 200wMA at $75, I would expect a near-full retrace of this entire rally back towards $62 to follow into Q4.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily timeframe, we can see that daily momentum bottomed out at the extremes whilst price deviated below $70 and then immediately reclaimed it, with price then ripping higher off that low back above the 30d rVWAP and 200dMA. We then cam into prior support at $76 and broke straight through that and continued higher, with daily RSI marginally back above 50 and AO flipping positive. But we are now exactly where late longs become very precarious given the cluster of significant VWAPs and price levels overhead, between $86-94.
What I would love to see for a high conviction short is $80 to hold here and price to push up through $86 into $88, tagging the anchored VWAP from the 2025 low as resistance, then price to reject and break lower with daily RSI back below 50. I would then look to short any intraday pullback subsequent to that all the way back into ~$76 as a first TP, where it becomes possible that a higher-low could form at that confluence of reclaimed support, with invalidation on a daily close above $88. Alternatively, if we reject here and don’t squeeze higher, I think the R/R is worse for the short into $76 and you might be better off waiting for acceptance back below $76 and shorting the underside retest as resistance, looking instead for that next leg lower into $62 as a higher conviction short. Let’s see how the next week or so plays out…
Bitcoin:
Price: $64,877
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that BTC continues to fail to break lower, having wicked below $60k support into the anchored VWAP from the 2022 bottom and then reversed to close the week back above the 200wMA, subsequent to which price has just been grinding higher along that 200wMA. We are now sandwiched between $62.5k as support and $65.8k as resistance, with the anchored VWAP from the May high overhead at $68.2k.
In my view, if we accept above $68kish subsequent to the price-action we have just seen below $60k, that is the ‘cycle low’ in, with a high degree of confidence. I am already pretty much convinced of it, but until we clear $68k and flip it into resistance there is every chance we reject with a lower-high and then finally break and close below $60k, opening up more downside. As those who have followed my thoughts on X will know, however, I find it difficult to ignore the signals price itself is giving here having been given every possible reason to make progress below $60k since February and having failed to do so for nearing 6 months. Above $68k = anchored VWAP from all-time high retest at $80k, with the 365d rVWAP above that at $85k the last major hurdle before the march to new highs.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, we can see that the 30d rVWAP has now been cleared and price is holding above it and the July VWAP as support, having reclaimed multiple local support level and with momentum now bullish. The 90d RVWAP is sat at $68.6k, and having faked out above it once in May when we rallied into $83k, I categorically do not expect the second move above it to be another fakeout, which is confluence for my view that above $68k we have transitioned from bear market bottom to new bull market. If we do reject here below that area and then break and close back below $62k, that would be bearish and I would expect continuation lower back into $58.5k from there, where we either get yet another failed breakdown or the final capitulation leg into the Q4 low that every man and his dog is awaiting.
Ethereum:
Price: $1875
Weekly:
Looking firstly at the weekly for ETH, we can see that price found support at $1535, right at the level that it failed to close below when marking its major bottom in April 2025 before running to new all-time highs. This is a significant area to hold, as below it we would be looking at a lot more downside, in my view, where $1385 is unlikely to hold. However, what we have at present is strength off that $1535 area and a reclaim of long-term trendline support, with price having broken and closed back above $1750 and now pushing towards $1900, right around trendline resistance from all-time highs.
What I want to see here to be convinced of significant upside to come for ETH would be a weekly close above $2000 with weekly RSI back above 50. We have the momentum exhaustion on AO and we have the failed breakdown; we now need the anchored VWAP reclaim and the momentum shift to the upside. In that scenario, I think we retest the 200wMA at $2500, above which we have bullish weekly structure and would be very much in the midst of another run towards the multi-year range resistance at $5000 into 2027. But - baby steps… we need to see some more strength here first, as we could quite easily put in a lower-high below $2000 and break lower again. Given my broader views on markets and crypto specifically, however, I think this is very unlikely and $1500 was a major bottom.
Daily:
Turning finally to the daily timeframe, we can see that ETH is actually a little further along in its recovery journey than BTC, with price already pressing right up against the 90d rVWAP and the anchored VWAP from the April highs at ~$1950. This is the last stand area for bears, in my view, where acceptance above these to VWAPs = not a fakeout anymore and we run right back towards those April/May highs. If we deviated above $2000 and then break lower, look towards the 30d rVWAP and $1750 reclaimed support, which should hold firm if the bottom is indeed in at ~$1500; if that area fails, the bears have another shot at the 2018 highs being retested…
I hope you’ve found some value in the read this week - please RT, share, engage etc. if so!