This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 91st edition of the Market Outlook here at Ostium Insights, we’ll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, looking at price-action, positioning and event risk for NDX, Gold, USDJPY, Copper and Solana.
Let’s first take a look at the week ahead, which is dominated by inflation data and the ECB Interest Rate Decision later in the week:
TUESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE 4-WK AVERAGE: (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 11.75K)
WEDNESDAY: CNY CHINA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) (AUG): (CONSENSUS 0.9% VS PREVIOUS 0.5%)
THURSDAY: ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 2.5% VS PREVIOUS 2.25%)
THURSDAY: ECB PRESS CONFERENCE
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 205K VS PREVIOUS 206K)
THURSDAY: US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD & ENERGY (MOM) (AUG): (CONSENSUS 0.3% VS PREVIOUS 0.2%)
FRIDAY: US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) (AUG): (CONSENSUS 3.4% VS PREVIOUS 3.4%)
FRIDAY: US MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (SEPT): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 51.7)
Now, let’s dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at the NDX:
NDX:
Price: $29,627
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for NDX, we can see that the past couple of weeks has been spent in compression, with price tightly wound at the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, with both prior weeks closing right around their respective weekly opens. Weekly momentum is still bullish and supportive of further upside, as is market structure whilst price holds above that $27.1k swing-low.
From here, I continue to expect an upside breakout rather than for this to be a multi-month distribution from which we begun a major correction, but I also continue to stress that post-May the easy upside was in the rear-view for 2026, hence my rotation of equity profits in June into Bitcoin. This has proved fruitful so far, but I think sentiment around stocks continues to be a perpetual wall of worry, fuelled by the barbell of AI anxiety and ceaseless Iran escalations and de-escalations.
Until the index can convincingly break and close below $28k as major support, we shouldn’t even be thinking about a major correction here in my view - you got a pretty good dip into $27k from the highs and there was immediate demand and a failure to close below that structural support. We also remain above the 365d rVWAP and price is currently above the anchored VWAP from the yearly lows. If we can frustrate both sides of the market a little longer, I think the upside breakout is violent and will be just as hated as every previous leg in this bull market appears to have been. A weekly close above resistance at $30.4k = path to $32.7k as first fib resistance + channel resistance.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that daily structure turned bullish following the v-reversal above the 200dMA, with price also reclaiming that anchored VWAP from all-time highs, as well as many other key levels. Price then stalled at $30.2k and has retraced since, but daily momentum is also bullish and price is currently holding above $28.6k as local support. Flip that into resistance and break back below $28k and I think we can be more open to this having been a bear trap into a bull trap and thus $29.7k being a structural lower-high; until then I think this looks absolutely fine for further upside.
$27k is then the final support level for this bull market to remain intact, confluent with the 200dMA and major swing-low, below which we have a higher timeframe structure break and I would expect a much deeper correction to follow from there. I do not think this is very likely at the moment, particularly given the macro regime we are in.
Gold:
Price: $4398
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Gold, we can see that the pair did have the momentum to push through trendline resistance right up into the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, closing right around that $4600 level with weekly RSI back above 50. The pair then wicked above that VWAP, rejected below $4700 and has since retraced, holding above trendline resistance turned support and attempting to mark out a higher-low.
Last week did see price wick lower back towards the yearly open, which held firm, with price then closing the week back near $4420. I would expect to see some more chop and consolidation near-term here given we have moved from $3900 to $4700 in a few weeks and rejected at the most important area of resistance on the chart, but this is very promising structurally and I would be extremely surprised if Gold retraces this entire rally and continues lower from here. The first signs of that being a possibility would be closing below last week’s low and flipping the yearly open back into resistance, where at least a retest of $4090 as local support is highly probable - and if that gives way then we would naturally be looking at the lows getting taken out below $3900, with the next major support down near $3500. For now, however, this looks like the early innings of a higher-low being carved out, where acceptance above $4700 from here = the road to new all-time highs into Q4 and early 2027.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that daily structure is still bullish for now, but if we do now reject here below the 200dMA and $4500 as resistance and close below the 90d rVWAP and $4230, daily structure turns bearish and we are back below that 2026 open, which means I would be bidding $4100 if it comes as a high R/R long. I am currently long some Gold but not much, though this is basically where I would be looking to build a longer-term position now that we have had several months of correction and consolidation - if we do flip $4700 into support, I will be more aggressive with long positioning into year-end. Not much else to add here for now…
USD/JPY:
Price: 155.74
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly timeframe for USD/JPY, we can see that some big changes have occurred relating to higher timeframe momentum and structure, with the latest rejection from 160 last week leading to a huge leg lower, confirming that trendline support from April 2025 has now turned resistance with a lower-high. We also closed firmly back below the 2025 and 2026 open, which had been acting as support previously on tests, and we are now marginally below the 365d rVWAP too.
Meanwhile, weekly RSI has flipped bearish, breaking below 50 whilst AO has confirmed this turning negative after a bearish divergence. This appears to me to be the end of the easy upside for USD/JPY, whereby we have a weekly structure break, a momentum breakdown and coordination from central banks to keep a lid on the pair. I think any rally into 159 would be an opportunity to short and the likely destination from here is back near the 200wMA at ~149.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, we can see that price rejected from an underside retest of the 90d rVWAP, then capitulating through multiple levels of support in a couple of sessions in true USD/JPY fashion, where the 200dMA and 159 immediately gave way and price retraced into and below the 365d rVWAP, which had not been closed below since October 2025. Price is now consolidating right around this VWAP and support at 155.5, but I expect any rallies to be short-live now given the shift in structure and momentum, where a deviation above the yearly open = sell the fucking rally back down to 153.3 as a first target…
Copper:
Price: $6.69
Weekly:
If we begin with the weekly for Copper, we can see that price has been consolidating around all-time highs for several weeks now, having formed a higher-low above prior resistance at $5.98 and then pushed on into $6.93 a few weeks ago, rejecting there and closing back below key resistance at $6.75. Price continues to consolidate below this key resistance, with anchored VWAPs from recent lows marking out a series of higher-lows throughout the trend. This remains unequivocally bullish with regards to structure on this timeframe and I would expect to see upside resolution from this consolidation range, where a weekly close above $6.75, flipping that level into support, would lead to expansion towards $7.50. We still have VWAP support, both anchored and 365d rolling, as well as trendline support below us, so until that huge confluence of levels begins to give way I don’t see any reason to flip bias.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily for more clarity, we can see that this has been very choppy indeed since that all-time high formed, with higher-lows but lower-highs and price converging around $6.65. Momentum is also choppy, as you’d expect, and until we either break and close below the anchored VWAP sat just above the mid-range of the prior consolidation at $6.38, or we flip the $6.75 level into support, we are likely to remain frustrated and those trying to play for a trending move will keep getting chopped apart.
If we do happen to lose $6.37 on a closing basis, I will exit my Copper position and look to reposition lower, likely back near the bottom of the prior range, confluent with trendline support and the 365d rVWAP around $6. If we break and close above $6.75, I think we get that next leg higher, and I will TP some around $7.22 and hold the rest for higher.
Solana:
Price: $103.99
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for SOL/USD, we can see that price has ripped higher off what I believe to be Solana’s cyclical low at $60, with that level having immediately found support, with price reclaiming $74 soon after and then consolidating above that area until August. We then got the impulse off that range support that took the pair to $95, with price finding some resistance there before closing above that level the subsequent week and holding above it last week too, with a new range having formed between $95 and $109 as resistance.
Above us, we have the 200wMA, anchored VWAP from the Oct 2025 high and the 365d rVWAP, all around that $110-$120 range: if and when Solana can flip $120 into support, I think we teleport into $144 - the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, which is then the final level of resistance before clear skies back into $200+. If we reject here and close back below $95, I would expect the formation of a higher-low above $74 into October, but to be honest a breakdown here is not my base case; rather, I think we chop a little longer in this tight range and then close the weekly above the 365d rVWAP into late September. In either case, if you are sidelined, your objective is to reframe the environment as one that is for buying dips, not selling rips, in my view.
Daily:
Turning finally to the daily, we can see that daily momentum has reset significantly from its extremes with price having barely sold off at all, and whilst the 30d rVWAP is below us and acting as support I think the highest probability outcome of this range is another leg higher to force people to chase at ‘uncomfortable’ prices. Only then do I think we’ll have the juice for a proper correction and liquidation event. Now, if I am wrong and we are blessed with a steeper correction from here, I think $85 is the best you’re going to get and even that I would expect to be front-run given how textbook a level it appears.
If I am putting on short-term bear goggles, a break and close below $95 and 30d rVWAP invites breakdown shorts which could act as a bear trap into support and fuel the next leg higher. If, instead, we rip through $120 this month, I think the danger zone for longs is in that $120-$144 range, where it becomes more convincingly bullish but less opportune for positioning and therefore possibly where we see some bull blood.
I hope you’ve found some value in the read this week - please RT, share, engage etc. if so!