This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 90th edition of the Market Outlook here at Ostium Insights, we’ll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, looking at price-action, positioning and event risk for SPX, EURUSD, Silver, Bitcoin and ETH.
Let’s first take a look at the week ahead, which is quiet early on and then dominated by inflation data and the Jackson Hole Symposium into the end of the week:
WEDNESDAY: US CORE PCE (MOM) (JUL): (CONSENSUS 0.2% VS PREVIOUS 0.1%)
WEDNESDAY: US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (JUL): (CONSENSUS 0.7% VS PREVIOUS 0.5%)
THURSDAY: JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 209K VS PREVIOUS 206K)
FRIDAY: JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM
FRIDAY: US CHICAGO PMI (AUG): (CONSENSUS 51 VS PREVIOUS 51)
FRIDAY: US NONFARM PAYROLLS BENCHMARK REVISION
FRIDAY: FED’S CHAIR WARSH SPEECH
Now, let’s dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at the SPX:
SPX:
Price: $7663
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for SPX, we can see that price rejected all-time highs last week at $7820 and sold off, closing the week back below the August VWAP at $7699. That said, price remains firmly above prior highs turned support at $7633 and well above the anchored VWAP from the yearly low, currently sat around $7323.
Weekly structure is still bullish and we should expect any near-term weakness here to put in a higher low above that $7323 area, from which I would expect the index to continue higher, where a weekly close above last week’s high would open up a move towards $8000 in Q4.
Only on acceptance back below $7639, flipping prior highs into resistance, would I expect more downside towards that anchored VWAP from the March low, and even then I would still expect a higher-low formation above that, but if we wick lower this week towards $7600 and then bounce to close the week back above $7700, I think that would be your local bottom, from which we keep grinding out new highs.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that price deviated above the high at $7800 and then rejected, leading to this retracement over the past week, with price now capped by the August VWAP and the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, but with the 30d rVWAP and 90d rVWAP below as support. Daily momentum has come off towards the 50 region but is trending higher - and whilst the July low holds it is hard to be bearish the index for more than a few percent.
I mentioned in June that I expected that the easy gains for the year were in the rear-view and that the index would likely just keep pushing higher but with lots of small dips and choppy price-action thereon, and we seem to be getting something akin to this at the moment.
If we do mark out a higher-low here over the next week above $7575 (30d rVWAP), I expect we’re back at new highs in early September and the next major resistance for me would be $8000ish, where I think we could see more volatility, particularly coming into Q4. Nonetheless, I think the ‘big correction’ for the year has already happened and those expecting more than the 10% we got back in March will remain in disbelief for the rest of 2026.
EUR/USD:
Price: $1.1676
Weekly:
If we begin with the weekly view for EUR/USD, we can see that after a few weeks of consolidation on the anchored VWAP from the 2025 lows, right around $1.138 support, price bounced hard, pushing right up into yearly trendline resistance, but not rejecting. The pair then consolidating sidewards for a couple of weeks below resistance and then continued higher last week, reclaiming multiple levels of support and printing a weekly close above the anchored VWAP from the yearly high and the 365d rVWAP.
We are now just below the yearly open, and it is my view that if we flip $1.1738 into support into early Sept, this will not be a fakeout like earlier this year but will instead be a durable trend shift, with the 2026 highs up near 1.205 as the next major target. We can also see from weekly momentum that the downtrend appears to be shifting in favour of upside continuation. The bearish case here is quite clear: deviate above $1.1738 and then see sellers push this back below $1.156, in which case I think we get a huge leg lower from there towards 1.10.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that daily structure and momentum are firmly bullish with the latter pushing into local extremes, whilst price rejects at the yearly open and prior trendline support turned resistance. This is exactly where we should expect some consolidation to occur, where a retrace into support above 1.1590 would be a buying opportunity with clear invalidation on acceptance below 30d rVWAP, where I would then expect further downside, at least into $1.138 but likely much lower. If this is truly a durable low off the range support, we should see reclaimed support at 1.157-1.159 hold firm and price break and close through the 2026 open, above which I think we retest that 2025 high and push for new yearly highs through 1.208.
Silver
Price: $69.12
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Silver, we can see that price has been ripping higher off that anchored VWAP and prior resistance support at $55, right above historical resistance turned support at $50. I did say explicitly that the time to be bearish Silver was behind us when we began consolidation around that VWAP, and this is exactly why. We have rallied over 20% in a few weeks and price is now right back near the yearly open, 365d rVWAP and just below the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, which is the most significant cluster of resistance on the chart. If and when we break $73 and flip it into support, I think we are firmly back in buy-the-dip mode where we trend towards the highs again into next year.
However, on this first attempt with price having rallied for multiple weeks, if you were going to brave a short, this is where it is most likely to pay off, with extremely clean invalidation on a bearish bias on acceptance above $73ish, and the possibility of at least retesting $60 as support for a higher-low within a longer-term bottoming formation.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that daily structure and momentum are bullish here, with price above the 30d rVWAP, as well as having recently broken above the anchored VWAP from May highs and the 90d rVWAP at $64. We do not have any signs of trend exhaustion here yet, but we do have the 365d rVWAP, 200dMA, anchored VWAP from the April 2025 lows and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high all clustered in a $4 range, with the yearly open in there too, so the idea of fresh long exposure here is poor R/R in my view.
I would instead look for a short within that range if we pop higher this week and then sellers step in and we get a lower timeframe market structure break, where invalidation would be a daily close above $74 and I would be looking for a 30d rVWAP retest at least, for a higher-low formation - and that is around where a dip buy would make sense for those looking for a long entry.
Alternatively, if that does not come and we break and close above this resistance on the first attempt, you want price to push higher and spend some time above $74 and then look to buy the first retest of that zone, likely in September.
Bitcoin:
Price: $77,286
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly timeframe for Bitcoin, we can see that price absolutely obliterated all lower timeframe resistance levels last week, rallying off the weekly open at local support and putting in an historic 20%+ week, closing at $77.7k after opening below the 200wMA at $64.5k. Weekly RSI broke firmly above 50 and is at its highest level since last year, but weekly structure is still technically bearish until we get a weekly close above the May highs at $83kish (which would coincide with a weekly close above both the anchored VWAP from all-time highs and the 365d rVWAP, which have both capped price this entire bear market. The momentum shift is real and I believe the last thing remaining here is that weekly close above $83k, above which any denial of a new bull market underway is pure denial and cope.
For those sidelined by this move, it is indeed a very tough spot because Bitcoin rarely gives clean entries after these sort of impulse thrusts higher and you can find yourself chasing price. It feels unlikely that a retest of $68k as resistance turned support is going to be given, and it is likely front-run if we do get it here - and here below $83k is precisely where such a sell-off could conceivably occur given the resistance. But that range between $70k-$74k is a more probable area for a strong higher-low to form if we don’t just clear $83k on this attempt. If we do break and close above $83k into early Sept, I think buying the next sell-off from higher back towards that area as major resistance turned support is cleaner from a R/R perspective. All good things happen above the 365d rVWAP.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily timeframe, we can see just how violent that move was off the lows, with price ripping most of that 20%+ in the space of three days, turning daily structure bullish and daily momentum up into the extremes, with RSI at its highest in over a year. We rallied above the 90d rVWAP early in the week and that led to acceleration through all resistance levels: regular readers will recall that I have hammered home the view that the second move above the 90d rVWAP after the May fakeout would not be a false one, and the aggression of the acceleration subsequent to that reclaim gives me a lot of confidence that this view is correct. We are now sat right below the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, which is, in my view, the last important resistance on the chart - and the level above which all good things happen.
If we can break and close through this area (and the 365d rVWAP just overhead), I think we keep ripping towards the yearly open at $89k before we get any serious pullbacks, where I would then be looking for a retest from above of that $80-$83k range as resistance turned support. Whilst we remain below $80k, the probability of a pullback short-term is higher, in my opinion, and if we reject here and close below $76.4k on the daily I think we can make a move into the range between $70k (200dMA) and $74k (historical resistance turned support), where I think we form a higher-low well above the key VWAPs and MAs below that, which I believe would be front-run with how many people are sidelined and looking for entries. Above $83k, we keep teleporting into $89k and that’s where a lot of sellers will step in and keep a lid on it on the first attempt, in my view.
Ethereum:
Price: $2458
Weekly:
Looking firstly at the weekly for ETH, we can see that the weekly candle for the pair was even more ridiculous than for BTC, rallying off that weekly open above $1827 support and closing the week marginally below the 200wMA, at $2463 - around which we are currently consolidating. This is also a clean weekly close above the highest weekly close in May and momentum has broken out on this timeframe, confirming a trend shift and a cyclical bottom, where we are now in a clear dip-buying environment for ETH.
From here, a weekly close above the 200wMA would open up a retest of the last major resistance cluster on this chart before a return to multi-year range highs: the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, the 365d rVWAP and the yearly open all between $2700-$3000. That’s where I do think we could see some resistance on the first attempt, where some volatility + consolidation is likely to occur into Q4. Above that zone I think we are on the path back to $4400 as multi-year resistance.
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see just how fast we moved after breaking the 200dMA, and now all key MAs and VWAPs below us are trending up. We are marginally above the Apr/May highs and consolidating, and whilst we are failing to reject here I think the path of least resistance short-term is likely till up into that $2700 level, where I think we take a longer breather and experience more sell pressure. If, however, we wick above last week’s high this week and then reject and flip $2400 into resistance on this timeframe, I think we have the makings of a local top - and much like Bitcoin I would expect the major support levels below to be front-run and price instead to find buyers and mark out a higher-low above $2077 into September. Not much else to add here for now - but I am very interested to see how what sort of reaction we get if we get one more leg up this week into $2700…
I hope you’ve found some value in the read this week - please RT, share, engage etc. if so!