This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 89th edition of the Market Outlook here at Ostium Insights, we’ll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, looking at price-action, positioning and event risk for NDX, Gold, USDJPY, Bitcoin and ETH.
Let’s first take a look at the week ahead, which is stacked on the inflation front heading into the latter parts of the week:
TUESDAY: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 4.35% VS PREVIOUS 4.35%)
WEDNESDAY: US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (YOY) (JUL): (CONSENSUS 3.4% VS PREVIOUS 3.5%)
THURSDAY: US PRODUCER PRICE INDEX EX FOOD AND ENERGY (YOY) (JUL): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 4.7%)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 198K VS PREVIOUS 199K)
THURSDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
FRIDAY: US RETAIL SALES (MOM (JUL): (CONSENSUS 0.1% VS PREVIOUS 0.2%)
FRIDAY: US MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX (AUG) (PREL.): (CONSENSUS 54 VS PREVIOUS 55.2)
Now, let’s dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at the Nasdaq 100:
NDX:
Price: $29,838
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for NDX, we can see that the last couple of weeks saw a very strong reaction above the 365d rVWAP, with price holding the low at $27,071 and v-reversing off that area to close that week back above range support at $27.8k. We then immediately reclaimed the anchored VWAP from the yearly low, finding support there at last week’s open and rallying back above the anchored VWAP from all-time highs, above which price closed firmly, with weekly momentum having reset but held above 50 on RSI. This is not bearish.
We have some minor resistance here around $29.7k to contend with, but given the macro regime combined with the technical setup here, I would be very surprised not to see a retest of the all-time high at $30.8k sometime in August, above which we have clear skies for continuation into $31.7k as the next minor resistance, around which is channel resistance that has been sticky over the past few years. The longer-term bearish setup here would be a deviation of the ATH followed by a break and close below $27.7k, where we have the makings of a distribution range for a much deeper correction, but this is not what I am expecting here. $32k+ into Q4, in my view.
Daily:
If we turn now to the daily timeframe, we can see that daily structure and momentum are once again bullish following the reversal off that swing-low, which - as expected - proved to be a bear trap. Now we are back above all key MAs and VWAPs, with the anchored VWAP from the all-time high acting as support with daily RSI back above 50 and AO confirming. If we do get a pull-back here into ~$28.7kish, I would see that as a long opportunity with invalidation at the $27.1k swing-low and a TP1 of new highs, followed by TP2 of $31.7k and TP3 of $32.6k, should this setup be presented.
If, instead, we run straight to highs from here with no dip into that cluster of support below, I don’t think there’s anything favourable on the long side until we accept above $30.8k and then see how price-action shapes up subsequent to that, where dips into that area as resistance turned support could be attractive. As mentioned above, on the short side, there is nothing of note unless we deviate those highs or unless we break and close below range support here (for example, if we get the $28.7k long setup → get stopped at $27.1k → structure has turned bearish and we could look for underside retests of $27.7k for shorts towards $26k.)
Gold:
Price: $4355
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly timeframe for Gold, we can see that price found strength last week after consolidating at support for a couple of months, with price rallying off that $4050 area all the way back above the 2026 open at $4326 to close at $4340, right below the 365d rVWAP, anchored VWAP for the prior swing-high and trendline resistance into $4400. Weekly RSI has crept back above 50 but we are now sat right at this cluster of overhead resistance, so this is where I would expect sellers to step in on the first attempt at a trendline breakout and 365d rVWAP reclaim, thus longs are not favourable up here.
That being said, as mentioned several weeks ago, the time to be bearish Gold (and Silver) was in the rear view and we are now looking for reasons to be longer-term bullish, in my opinion, and even if price does get slapped down here short-term, my expectation is a higher-low formation above $4050 that then leads to a break and close above $4450ish, thus clearing this overhead resistance. Above that area, I think the trend has materially shifted in favour of continuation towards the highs into Q4…
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see how price hugged that 30d rVWAP which had been capping all of the rallies through spring, with price compressing ever-tighter into end of July. We then got a local breakout above the 30d rVWAP and the lower trendline resistance that led to continuation through prior resistance at $4245 into the 90d rVWAP and then the 2026 open. Price barely stalled at all at the former level and closed last week marginally above that yearly open, with momentum and structure now bullish on this timeframe, but with plenty of overhead resistance to contend with.
If you were looking for shorts (I am not), a pop higher into the 365d rVWAP towards $4430 would be your entry this week with invalidation on a daily close above $4500, though in terms of downside targets there is a good chance we hold above the 90d rVWAP at $4230 for a higher-low, so that would be as far as I think would be worthwhile holding that position if the setup is presented. Not much else to add here for now.
USD/JPY
Price: 158.49
Weekly:
I mentioned both in the prior Outlook and in previous posts through July that despite price-action telling us one thing (bullish structure + momentum with no technical resistance), we had a glaring reason not to be looking for longs above that 162 resistance, and particularly so at 164, and that was the clear intervention risk from central banks. Well, price tagged 164 and both the BoJ and the Fed colluded to tank USDJPY by almost 1000 pips in two weeks, with price tagging the 365d rVWAP at 155 last week and bouncing off that level, closing the week at 157.7, still several hundred pips off the July highs.
That said, despite the intervention, weekly structure remains bullish and price held above the yearly open on the close, and I would expect to see price grind higher once again - as has been the general trend for all of 2026. Unless price rejects below 160 and then breaks and closes below 155, the longer-term trend is still intact and, if anything, this is the area where longs are more favourable again; preferably, you’d want to see another sweep of the yearly open and look for lower timeframe setups in that area with invalidation very clear. On the short side, I think a slow grind higher into 162 would present a high R/R short opportunity, particularly given the scale of intervention that occurred at 164 and the technical resistance now in that area.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily for a bit more clarity, we can see that three days of price-action was all it took to unwind months of grinding higher off the May lows - and that is the significant risk of central bank intervention when holding long exposure on this pair. Price rejected at the 164 resistance as that initial intervention came in and drove price below the 90d rVWAP at 160.5, with subsequent capitulation through the 200dMA into the 365d rVWAP at 155, which has held firm. The pair bounced off this level and closed back above the 2025 and 2026 open levels at 156.85 and 157.31, then consolidating a touch and now pushing higher again off that range as support, with a full momentum washout - as would be expected given the nature and extent of the intervention.
We are still very much in a long-term uptrend here but the trendline support from the April 2025 low has been lost on this most recent breakdown. If we reclaim 159 here, we reclaim that trendline and I would expect price to climb towards 160.18 to retest the 90d rVWAP, 30d rVWAP and the anchored VWAP from the yearly high as resistance from below; and that is where I think we find some sell pressure again, above which we have the 162 prior high turned resistance. I think if the longer-term trend is turning, we will see that 160-162 range form a lower-high and price break down from there. If, instead, the long-term trend persists, we will just grind through all of that overhead resistance back into the yearly high and no doubt see some sort of intervention again from higher levels.
Bitcoin:
Price: $65,310
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for Bitcoin, we can see that price has been compressing tightly between the anchored VWAP from May highs as resistance and the 200wMA as support, with much of the recent price-action sandwiched between $62.5k and $65.8k. Last week saw price wick below local range support and hold firm, bouncing but closing once again below $65.8k resistance. Weekly structure is bearish, but momentum is turning up after a huge divergence into the June low. It has now been over 6 months since the $60k Feb low with zero bearish progression - and in my opinion, when coupled with the macro regime we are now in, it is going to be very difficult to make the case for another leg lower from here unless it happens soon.
If we do break and close below $62.5k, obviously $60k is the major level to hold, below which the bears may finally get their final capitulation leg lower that they are patiently awaiting; in my view, however, if we close the weekly above that anchored VWAP at $67.6k (though potentially lower, which we will see on the daily timeframe), a durable cyclical bottom has formed and I would expect price to float higher through August from there, with the final boss up near $80k, though I do not expect us to tag that level until closer towards Q4. Time is fast running out for bearish continuation.
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see just how tightly compressed price-action is here, not dissimilar to Gold at $4050, and the 30d rVWAP and August VWAP are acting as support, alongside the anchored VWAP from the June low, whilst the 90d rVWAP and anchored VWAP from the May high is the primary resistance to overcome. Daily momentum is bullish here, which supports an upwards resolution of this range, and if we do accept above the 90d rVWAP currently only a few hundred dollars overhead, flipping that into support, I think the bear market is over. I have stated multiple times since we lost the 90d rVWAP in late May after the first breakout attempt that the second breakout is extremely unlikely to also be a fakeout and I stand by that. Flip 90d rVWAP into support this month and this entire range since the Feb low at $60k looks more like re-accumulation than redistribution and we should then expect the retest of $80k as major resistance to follow.
Ethereum:
Price: $1926
Weekly:
Looking firstly at the weekly timeframe for Ethereum, we can see that price has successfully broken above trendline resistance from all-time highs, then retesting that trendline as support and holding firm, with the pair now consolidating below the anchored VWAP from the April highs. Weekly momentum is still bearish but turning higher after major divergence and price reclaimed long-term trendline support after deviating below. This is not what I would want to see if I was bearish and expecting continuation below $1500 to follow near-term.
Rather, if bears are to regain control here, price needs to reject this anchored VWAP at $1973 and then break and close the weekly back below reclaimed support at $1750 - in that scenario, this looks like a lower high with bearish momentum and we can then be more confident in bearish continuation, at least to retest $1500 if not break meaningfully lower. If, instead, price can close above $1973 and flip this VWAP into support, much like Bitcoin I think the price capitulation phase of ETH’s bear market is in the rear view and I would expect a retest of the April highs to follow, with the 200wMA around $2500 as major resistance.
Daily:
Finally, dropping into the daily, we can see that daily structure and momentum turned bullish, but then price began consolidating below that anchored VWAP and some bearish divergence formed. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that if this is the beginning of a major trend shift, we should expect this momentum divergence to fail, and so far it has, with price barely retesting that 30d rVWAP as support before bouncing back towards the top of the local range, with daily RSI holding 50. If we now get a stronger rejection from here and lose 50 on daily RSI whilst price loses $1750, that’s when you get bearish; until then, this looks like it is coiling for a breakout to the upside, in my opinion, where acceptance above $2000 = $2400-$2500 being retested over the next few weeks. Let’s see how the rest of August plays out…
I hope you’ve found some value in the read this week - please RT, share, engage etc. if so!