This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

In this 85th edition of the Market Outlook here at Ostium Insights, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, looking at price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, NDX, USDJPY, Gold and Ethereum.

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Let's first take a look at the rest of the week ahead, with the focus undoubtedly being on FOMC on Wednesday, but with several central bank meetings and rate decisions coming up:

WEDNESDAY: US RETAIL SALES (MOM) (MAY): (CONSENSUS 0.5% VS PREVIOUS 0.5%)

WEDNESDAY: FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 3.75% VS PREVIOUS 3.75%)

THURSDAY: SNB INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 0% VS PREVIOUS 0%)

THURSDAY: BOE INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 3.75% VS PREVIOUS 3.75%)

THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 225K VS PREVIOUS 229K)

THURSDAY: US PHILLY FED MANUFACTURING SURVEY (JUN): (CONSENSUS 10 VS PREVIOUS -0.4)

Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:

Bitcoin:

Price: $65,402

Weekly:

If we begin by looking at the weekly for Bitcoin, we can see that price sold off from the June open a couple of weeks ago, rejecting at the anchored VWAP from all-time highs and immediately pushing lower, capitulating all the way through to the range low at $60k, sweeping it into $59.1k and then bouncing, holding above the anchored VWAP from the prior cycle lows. Price closed that week above the 200wMA, then consolidated for an inside week within that capitulation candle, again holding the 200wMA and confirming a bullish divergence on this timeframe. Price opened this week right around the June VWAP at $66.2k, wicked above it and is now trading back near the open. If this weekly trend exhaustion is valid - and I believe it is given much of the data I have presented over the past few weeks - we should now have seen the cyclical lows for BTC, with price needing to hold $59k and push higher back above the June VWAP this week. If we can do that, and we go into the last week of June with $66k as support, I think we retest the June open at $73k before the end of June and likely sweep the highs (that formed in the first 4 hours of the June candle). That is where the reaction will tell us everything: if we push up out of this area having swept the Feb low and put in higher timeframe seller exhaustion, but then we sweep $73k (the anchored VWAP from the yearly high and the 90d rolling VWAP) and puke lower again, that is not a good look and I would look to exit my spot (avg. entry ~$67.1k). If, instead, we flip $73k into support again in July, I am very confident the second 90d rolling VWAP breakout is not a fakeout and those expecting to buy a cycle low in Q4 will be left sidelined.

Daily:

Turning to the daily, we can see that daily structure is bearish and momentum is pushing up against 50 again on RSI here, whilst price is rejecting at the 30d rolling VWAP below the April open. This is exactly where we should expect a local high to form after the $8k bounce off the lows, but it is what happens over the next week or so as price turns here that is key: if we print a swing-high below the 30d rVWAP, then push back below the June VWAP and through $62.6k support, it is very likely that we get another push lower from there, likely back through $59k towards $56.8k. If, instead, we form this high, then mark out a higher-low above $62.6k (the anchored VWAP from the $59k low and a prior support level), we have the makings of a much more durable trend shift, where acceptance back above $68k subsequent to this higher-low would be very promising indeed, especially with momentum back above 50 on daily RSI. In that scenario, I would expect the June open and June highs to get run, which would be a massive move off the $59k low, and that is where I think the path to more downside through summer into a classical 4-year cycle low vs. a breakout and early cyclical bottom becomes most clear: above $74k we are looking strong, and I do not expect the second test of the anchored VWAP from all-time highs at $82k to hold thereafter, so I would be confident that the worst is behind us and we are headed towards the 365d rVWAP and 2026 open at $89k before Q4; if we get up into that $74k region and price breaks back below 90d rVWAP again, failing to hold it as support, as mentioned above I would cut my spot purchases and await better prices.

NDX:

Price: $30,408

‍Weekly:

If we begin by looking at NDX on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price formed an all-time high into the multi-year trend resistance at $30,733 a couple of weeks ago, rejected and corrected lower into the anchored VWAP from the March 2026 low at $28,318 before marking out a higher-low and v-reversing back to the highs this week. Weekly structure and momentum remain firmly bullish with no signs of higher timeframe exhaustion as of yet - however, if we do push through this trend resistance and close at fresh highs this week, there is a chance we see some bearish divergences appear. But what do we say about divergences in strong trends? They are more likely to be invalidated than follow through; nonetheless, this is something to keep an eye on into end of June. The bearish setup for NDX here would be a close at new highs that is rejected next week and price then closing June back below $28.3k - that would confirm the trend exhaustion on this timeframe with a loss of a massive level and a deeper pullback would be much more probable subsequent to that, likely back towards $26.3k as untested prior highs. Until that happens, you should expect dips to continue to be bought and consolidation to be followed by more price discovery, with $31.7k as the next overhead target.

Daily:

Dropping into the daily timeframe, we can see that daily structure did turn bearish on the break and close below $28.6k as the swing-low that preceded the all-time high into $30.7k, but we basically swept those lows into major support and v-reversed after a momentum reset, with price reclaiming the June VWAP and anchored VWAP from the high as support almost immediately. This is not bearish price-action and we have now had the reset on RSI and AO that could open up much more upside if we accept above $30.8k this week and flip that into support, where $31.7k and $32.7k become the key fib levels to look for signs of exhaustion. If we pull back from here into $29.7k without running the highs first, that could be a nice long opportunity for those fib levels with invalidation on a daily close back below ~$29.4k. You should not have a bearish bias unless we close above $30.8k, print some bearish divergences on both the weekly and daily timeframes and then actually reject and follow through - until we see that, dips are for buying, in my view.

USDJPY:

Price: 160.44

‍Weekly:

Looking firstly at the weekly timeframe for USDJPY, we can see that price close above local resistance at 159 and is holding above it as support, with price now pushing through resistance at 160.18 as I type this. As long as we are holding above 159, I can see continuation into the 2024 highs and channel resistance up near 162, where I expect significant sell pressure to step in and attempt to push this lower again. If we close the weekly back below 159, I think we continue to do exactly what we have done for the whole year which is compress within this rising channel with a view toward another higher-low formation back near the yearly open. Not much else to flag here for the time being...

Daily:

Turning now to the daily, we can see that price was just grinding higher after that flip of 158.9 into support, with no real momentum but just riding the June VWAP higher into 160.67. We hen rejected, wicked below the June VWAP into the 30d rVWAP and found support at 159.5, now pushing higher again into resistance at 160.67. Acceptance above this level which preceded the intervention candle back in April would be a clear signal that the 2024 highs are due next, where I would expect the next round of sellers to step in. Until we accept above the 2024 highs, I think it is much safer to assume this upwards consolidation pattern remains intact and that R/R for longs on any timeframe above the daily is poor given the probability of another push lower back towards the 200dMA. The highest R/R shorts I can see here would be a run of 162 and lower timeframe breakdown or rejection here that leads to a move back below 159, where I would look to short an underside retest for a move back into 156.85.

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Gold:

Price: $4325

Weekly:

Looking at the weekly timeframe for Gold, what I will say is that I did not expect the move of the past couple of weeks where price rejected below $4500 as resistance, broken below the 365d rolling VWAP and took out the capitulation candle lows from Q1 into $4015, closing the week below the yearly open at $4326. Weekly RSI has also broke below 50 and AO has flipped negative, and the combination of this with the weekly close below the 365d rVWAP is not a technically pretty picture for Gold, where we have now opened up the possibility of another leg lower from here towards the anchored VWAP from the 2022 lows at $3620, above the major resistance turned support and $3500. There is of course every chance that this run of the Q1 lows acts as a spring and Gold pushes off from here, but I would need to see more evidence of that given that higher timeframe momentum is now bearish and so is structure. If we can break and close above $4550ish and flip that into support, things look a little better, but this overall setup is looking much more like a deeper pullback and consolidation is underway than a swift reversal...

Daily:

Turning now to the daily timeframe, we can see that daily structure is obviously bearish and momentum spiked lower on that sweep of the March low into $4000, with Gold finding significant support on that first test and reversing into $4325, where it sits now, with the 30d rVWAP and 365d rVWAP both sat just overhead. We are now precisely where the technicals would suggest this bounce slows and a lower high could form, with prior support turned resistance not far off and the 200dMA potentially being retested from below, whilst daily RSI pushes into 50 from below. If we do form a lower-high here below $4450, I would expect another test of $4000 to follow and the reaction into that move will give us more clues as to whether we are due a much deeper pullback from here towards $36xx or whether this is the bottom forming here, where some trend exhaustion into $4000 followed by a stronger bounce and close back above $4500 would be all I need to see to start looking for higher timeframe longs on Gold. Until then, Gold is not attractive to me for longs, and, for those looking to short, a pop higher here into $4450 would be the place to ladder asks. Acceptance above the anchored VWAP from all-time highs and the trendline at $4750 is the ultimate risk-on signal here, but I think we will get a clearer picture before that happens with a much higher R/R long setup.

Ethereum:

Price: $1777

Weekly:

Beginning with the weekly timeframe for Ethereum, we can see that the long-term ETH chart is a bit of a strange one and could be read in a bullish or bearish manner depending on your own bias: we have what is effectively a 6-year ascending triangle, with higher-lows since the 2022 bottom, but we also have an asset that failed to stick the landing on new all-time highs during the previous cycle and therefore could be considered inherently weak. I actually don't have a clear read on this myself, but I would say it is very low R/R to be bearish ETH down here just based on the past six year of price-action. What we currently have is an asset that - despite failing to outperform to the upside in 2025 - has held extremely firm in relative terms to the downside, holding above the April 2025 lows at $1390 where Bitcoin failed to do so. Unless we convincingly break and close below that $1390 low (or that 2018 cycle high turned support at $1420), this is still a series of higher-lows across multiple years and the R/R for further downside here is poor.

We saw the capitulation weekly candle push below the 2026 low at $1747 but hold at $1535 and bounce back above $1747 as of this week. Price is still firmly below trendline resistance and key VWAP, with bearish weekly structure but with clear bullish divergence into 5-year trendline support. It is a genuinely tough read, as acceptance below that $1535 low and this trendline support would look significantly more bearish and as though that 2025 low is going to get taken out at $1390, which invalidates much of the longer-term bullish structure being built here; but, in my view, given where I believe Bitcoin is at present, I think the 2025 low for ETHUSD holds and we are here marking out another durable yearly low on the pair, from which it is likely to return to the top end of the multi-cycle range near $5000 going into 2027. What bulls need to see here is the $1535 low hold firm and price push higher here, breaking above trendline resistance and flipping $1750ish back into support; then pushing higher into that cluster of resistance above $2150 and closing above that. In that scenario, we have a very high probability of weekly structure turning bullish on ETHUSD after a higher-low formation above the 2025 low - and it doesn't matter how much you might (correctly) think ETH was weak in the previous cycle, that would be a bullish setup for the coming months.

Daily:

Turning to the daily, we can see that just like BTC the structure here is bearish and daily momentum is pushing right up into an area where it is likely to turn, with the 30d rolling VWAP above acting as resistance, as well as prior support and the May open at $1793 doing so. What bulls need to see here is this S/R flip lead to the formation of another higher-low above $1535 into next week, which itself then leads to a break and close back above the 30d rVWAP, confirming $1750 as reclaimed support. This would be step 1 in the building of more bullish structure, where price would then need to hold $1750 and break and close above trendline resistance from near all-time highs, where the May run proved to be a fakeout. In that scenario, with ETHUSD back above ~$1950, I would expect $2160 to be retested from below, acceptance above which would be where I grow confidence in the higher timeframe bullish picture for the pair - and that's where I think you can grow some confidence in the view that the top of the range at $5000 is more likely to trade than the 2025 low at $1390 going into 2027. A break and close above the 200dMA and $2394 over the coming months would be the final step in the higher timeframe structural bullishness, above which I think we teleport to the 2026 open at $2966. The bearish picture for ETH here is pretty clear: this S/R flip holds, with $1750 turning resistance and price breaking back below $1535, closing below that level and capitulating in another leg lower through the 2025 lows at $1390. At that point, the higher timeframe structure (weekly/monthly) is looking much more bleak than it is today and the weakness to the upside of 2025 would be matched by weakness to the downside in 2026. If we do see that, I don't think you should be looking at ETH ever again as a longer-term hold given what the market structure is suggesting.

I hope you've found some value in the read this week - please RT, share, engage etc. if so!

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