This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 86th edition of the Market Outlook here at Ostium Insights, we’ll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, looking at price-action, positioning and event risk for SPX, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, Silver and Bitcoin.
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Let’s first take a look at the rest of the week ahead, with a huge amount of growth and labour market data to cram into the next few days before the early close:
MONDAY: ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE SPEECH
TUESDAY: US CHICAGO PMI (JUN): (CONSENSUS 58.1 VS PREVIOUS 62.7)
TUESDAY: US JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (MAY): (CONSENSUS 7.3M VS PREVIOUS 7.618M)
WEDNESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (JUN): (CONSENSUS 113K VS PREVIOUS 122K)
WEDNESDAY: ECB PRESIDENT LAGARDE SPEECH
WEDNESDAY: FED’S CHAIR WARSH SPEECH
WEDNESDAY: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (JUN): (CONSENSUS 54 VS PREVIOUS 54)
THURSDAY: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (JUN): (CONSENSUS 110K VS PREVIOUS 172K)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 220K VS PREVIOUS 215K)
Now, let’s dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at SPX:
SPX:
Price: $7468
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for SPX, we can see that the index topped out a few weeks ago at $7625, but more broadly has been consolidating between support at $7325 and resistance at $7475 for the past couple of months, with weekly momentum resetting a touch from extremes, but structure still very much bullish and price still firmly above key levels, including the anchored VWAP from the March low. This consolidation is occurring after an historic v-reversal out of the March low and is right around the 200% fib extension of the April 2025 tariff crash. If we can accept above $7625, there is no major technical resistance until we get above $8000, in my view.
For those who follow along closely on X, you will note that despite remaining bullish on the index, I exited levered exposure very close to the top several weeks ago, with the expectation that the bulk of the easy gains are likely behind us and that we were likely to see better risk-adjusted returns in other areas over the coming 12-18 months. I remain in this camp for the time being, and allocated some of the profits from this positioning into spot Bitcoin at ~$60k.
That being said, the wall of worry on the index remains immense and despite the near-10% correction we got earlier this year it appears that many are convinced of a bigger drawdown into year-end. I remain entirely unconvinced of this view and expect that the index will continue to frustrate anyone who did not use the March opportunity to allocate by chopping around and offering ‘unbuyable’ dips as it grinds higher into 2027.
My public year-end target in January was $7800 subsequent to a 8-12% correction: we have done the correction part of that and I think the year-end target is now likely to be eclipsed.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that price had some minor trend exhaustion into that $7625 high, and that technical setup played a small part in my exiting levered exposure up there; not with a view of re-allocating lower but as mentioned re-allocating elsewhere. We broke the $7325 swing-low, closed below it turning market structure bearish but then held firm above the anchored VWAP from the March low and reversed sharply off it, marking out a lower-high below the all-time high and now consolidating between those two levels, with the 90d rolling VWAP now creeping up towards price and recent price-action looking like a higher-low formation above it.
Whilst we remain in this range, do not expect the price-action to be clean and pretty, but what would provide a clearer signal for the next move would be acceptance below the 90d rolling VWAP + anchored VWAP from the March low, flipping $7235 into resistance; and if we see that occur, then we can start talking about a deeper pull-back towards the 200dMA and prior all-time highs to retest that ~$7000 level - until then, this is not a bearish setup, it is just consolidation after a mammoth reversal. On the long side, as I said I am not personally looking to re-allocate to the index on leverage here but, if you are, you want to see this higher-low stick the landing and price then accept above $7600, flipping that resistance into support, where invalidation on longs is loss of that higher-low and the next minor resistance would be ~$7890.
USD/JPY:
Price: 162.39
Weekly:
Finally. We finally got the breakout after oh so many attempts.
If we begin by looking at the weekly for USDJPY, we can see that after the past couple of weeks of consolidation above the June VWAP but below the 2024 highs, we have finally pushed beyond 162 - and weekly momentum is supportive. We did have bearish divergence into the March 2026 highs on this timeframe and this has now been invalidated, both with price-action and weekly RSI. The next area of potential resistance would be the 100% extension of the local trend at 163.72.
There is no reason to be bearish up here (notwithstanding intervention risks) because structure and momentum are pointing towards continuation of the trend - but what will be key to watch out for is if we get some sort of bull trap up here into early July with a very swift reversal off this area back below 161.95. If we see something like that, and the lower timeframes begin to break down, we have the makings of a failed breakout from the biggest level of the past few years. Until then, expect higher.
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, we can see that daily momentum and structure are firmly bullish with the former pushing new highs on this most recent move through 162, with no signs of trend exhaustion at all. Thus, we should expect the pair to keep ripping towards that 163.7 fib extension before sellers step in. As mentioned above, however, given the vast amount of data between now and Thursday and the beginning of a new quarter, there is every chance of this marking a pivot - but there is zero reason to attempt to front-run that. Just watch price-action here and, if you are bearish and expecting a reversal off these new highs, wait for a push higher and an immediate rejection back below the 2024 high.
If we see that, we have two possible paths before shorts become favourable: another push to new highs that forms some bearish divergence and then breaks down (better R/R), or await a continuation move lower off the initial rejection into 160.7 where there is much confluence for some support and then look to short the underside retest of the 2024 highs. Those are the only two setups I’d be interested in from a bearish POV.
EUR/USD:
Price: $1.1394
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for EUR/USD, we can see that price bounced at the anchored VWAP from the 2025 lows a couple of months ago, as expected, pushing back into the 1.1844 level and marking out a lower-high. Since then, the pair has retraced the entire rally off that swing-low, breaking back below local supports and, as of last week, breaking a fresh low that closed below that anchored VWAP. Weekly RSI has also broken lower and is not showing any trend exhaustion here. As such, we should expect some continuation lower here towards the gigantic support level at 1.124 as long as price is below last week’s high - and 1.124 area is where I would expect an interim bottom to be put in.
Now, if this is a bear trap despite what structure and momentum are suggesting, then into Q3 we would need to see an immediate reclaim of 1.147 as support, then for price to push higher from there and form another higher-low back above this anchored VWAP from the 2025 low. Something like a move from here into 1.157 → higher low above 1.141 → back above 1.159 would be textbook structurally for this move below 1.14 to have been a bear trap - and then we could look for another run towards the 1.1844 resistance on the lower timeframes and assume that the 1.1379 low from last week holds. Preferably, that scenario occurs with a higher-high on weekly RSI too, confirming the momentum shift. Until then, this does not look very strong - but it does sort of look like a condensed fractal of the 2023-2025 price-action within a much tighter range. And given what I am currently seeing within the macro regime modelling, with inflation impulses collapsing and growth impulses bottoming out (thus potentially foreshadowing a transition back from ‘Overheat’ into ‘Goldilocks’ over coming months, this could be a headwind for continued dollar strength…
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see that price did close below that anchored VWAP but very quickly reclaimed it, though momentum and structure on this timeframe remain firmly bearish. Given this, if we do pop higher here into the 30d rVWAP at 1.151 (also prior supported turned resistance), our expectation should be that it will fail and form a lower-high from which the pair continues lower into 1.124, as outlined above - and where we could look for high R/R shorts with clean invalidation. It is up to price-action to invalidate this bearish view by putting in the structure that is supportive of a more durable bottom, as well as a momentum shift.
If we do reclaim the 30d rVWAP and then mark out a higher-low above this current swing-low, we have that structure being form - and then we can look at a subsequent higher-high as confirmation of a bear trap into 1.137. As mentioned, the macro is sort of shaping up to favour upside for EURUSD, but I want to see more before I get over-excited about longs.
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Silver:
Price: $59.02
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Silver, I’d first like to extend my commiserations to the staunch Silver bulls that have held firm through this entire cycle of euphoria and denial - your sacrifices will be keenly remembered as I look for Silver long exposure over the coming months.
But, for now, what we have here is bearish weekly structure and bearish momentum on the higher timeframes, with price capitulation through major support last week into $55 and holding above that prior resistance level for now, but with weekly RSI crumbling through 50 and AO confirming this. Nothing here is screaming buy for me just yet, but this most recent capitulation lower is - in my view - the beginning of the end of the decline. From here, I would expect limited downside, but more of a choppy grind lower and re-accumulation to begin occurring in the second half of 2027, with the anchored VWAP from the 2020 lows (confluent with the 2011 highs) at $50 the most probable area for price to put in a higher timeframe bottom (though perhaps front-running it a touch). I would like to see another lower-high in July lead to one more push down that sends momentum lower with it - and then I want to see some choppy sideways price-action begin and some trend exhaustion begin to form on the lower timeframes. Then we can look at potential allocation for the next cycle higher…
Daily:
Dropping into the daily, we can see that there remains no trend exhaustion but the most recent capitulation lower into $55 printed the lowest daily RSI reading since April 2025. Daily structure is firmly bearish here, with support being flipped into resistance all the way down, and we are comfortably below the 200dMA and 365dMA that had been supporting price until June. As mentioned above, from here, what I am watching for as a potential buying in H2 2027 is another lower high below the 200dMA that leads to another push lower towards $50, where I think the risk/reward for longer-term exposure is very favourable.
Alternatively, if we are forming the bottom right here and front-running that historical area, we should see price either mark out a higher low above $55 from the next push higher and then reclaim the 365d rVWAP and 2026 open around $71 - if we get that sequence, I am quite happy to be the buyer higher up and I would be looking for levered exposure once we are clear of $73ish, as I think the balance of probability shifts in favour of continuation towards that all-time high retest if we have reclaimed those key levels. Further, if we do get that drop into $50ish in Q3, I would be buying some spot around that level anyway and then looking for a cleaner lower timeframe setup (like some trend exhaustion into that level followed by daily market structure turning bullish) to add leverage.
Bitcoin:
Price: $58,947
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for BTC/USD, we can see that following that capitulation candle into the 200wMA, price has basically been chopping around within the bottom end of that candle’s range, with last week pushing a marginal new low right into the anchored VWAP from the 2022 bear market low. We do have the makings of some higher timeframe trend exhaustion here, but momentum and structure remain bearish until this divergence is validated. Nonetheless, if you have been following my posts on X, you will know that I am firmly of the belief that we are right at the point of maximal opportunity for Bitcoin on a longer-term time horizon and that spot purchases around this low are likely to feel obvious in hindsight. I have bought spot at $73.3k (very early) and then again at $60k, with a view to a final third of this positioning being filled within the next week - and this will be my discretionary position for the next BTC cycle. I am not looking for levered exposure yet. (This is all completely independent from the systematic stuff I have been sharing snippets of on X, which remains flat all of crypto and has been all of June).
If we close below $56.5k on the weekly timeframe, I think we see a wick towards $53k and a huge amount of demand step in within that range - but, to be frank, I do not expect us to trade much lower than current prices for very long. And on the bullish side, we have the higher timeframe trend exhaustion that has formed and what we need to see here is a push higher off this anchored VWAP back above the 200wMA at $62.6k, closing back above that level - I would then be pretty confident that the downside is indeed exhausted here and we are more likely to grind higher than break down again from there. Above $62.6k, I think we retest the 2021 highs and anchored VWAP from the May high, both sat at $70k - and above that I think the bear market bottom is nailed on.
Perhaps I am going to look an absolute fool as the consensus view of more downside into Q4 and buying the low sub-$50k plays out - I am willing to take that risk here.
Daily:
Finally, looking at the daily, we can see that daily structure remains bearish and price is just chopping right around that Feb low at $60k, failing to break back above but also failing to break meaningfully lower. Naturally, flipping $58k into resistance here on this timeframe does open up more downside, where $56.5k is support, with $53k as major support below that, as highlighted above; conversely, I would be looking for a reclaim of the Feb low as support in early July, followed by a break and close back above the 30d rVWAP ant $63k, as a really early sign that sellers will not be rewarded any further in Q3. Not much else to add here for the time being, but I did write this brief post on X with some thoughts around sentiment:
I hope you’ve found some value in the read this week - please RT, share, engage etc. if so!
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