This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 60th Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dollar Index, Gold and SPX.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, which is both speech-heavy and data-heavy post-government shutdown, with NVDA earnings also due:
MONDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
MONDAY: US NY EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING INDEX (NOV): (CONSENSUS 6.1 VS PREVIOUS 10.7)
TUESDAY: US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (MOM) (OCT): (CONSENSUS 0.1% VS PREVIOUS 0.1%)
TUESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS -11.25K)
WEDNESDAY: FOMC MINUTES
WEDNESDAY: NVDA EARNINGS
THURSDAY: BLS EMPLOYMENT RELEASE
THURSDAY: US PHILLY FED MANUFACTURING SURVEY (NOV): (CONSENSUS -2 VS PREVIOUS -12.8)
THURSDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
FRIDAY: VARIOUS FED SPEECHES
FRIDAY: US S&P GLOBAL MANUFACTURING PMI (NOV): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 52.5)
FRIDAY: US S&P GLOBAL SERVICES PMI (NOV): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 54.8)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $95.667
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly, we can see that Bitcoin was very weak, pushing into the anchored VWAP from all-time highs below $109k last week, rejecting and selling off through that confluence of support between $98k-$100k, breaking below that swing-low and trendline support and closing out the week just above the 2025 open. Thankfully, this was an extremely well-timed exit on my levered long last week, as highlighted on X, where I was unhappy with us hovering around $101k rather than leaving it in the rear-view and so took the partial loss at $101.5k rather than awaiting a full stop at $94k - and within 48 hours that full position would have been stopped out. Position management is super important. Anyway, looking at where we are now, we have lost that multi-month range as well as a number of key levels and weekly structure is bearish here, with us sat right below the long-term uptrend. Momentum has fully reset and flipped negative, but this has notably marked local bottoms throughout the bull cycle. Pair this with bear market trough-level sentiment over the weekend regarding YTD performance, alongside a weekend sell-off into the 2025 open, and we have strong potential for a relief bounce off this area at the very least. I was filled overnight at $93.3k, as this is the only other level I wanted to bid without us heading back to the April low zone. I am not looking to swing this back to all-time highs, because structure is broken and I would argue that unless we now clear $110kish and flip that area into support, there is always the risk of this next move higher being a complacency shoulder before lower prices. Thus, I am looking to play this into last week's highs around $107.3k, where I would cover and await further price-action before either looking for fresh longs back to the highs or a fade back to $89k. My hard stop on this is $85k but I would look to exit much earlier, price-action-dependent. Looking ahead, as I said until we reclaim that multi-month range support and are above the anchored VWAP from all-time highs (which has capped all recent weekly highs) I would be wary of getting too excited. This has not changed my broader views on 'higher for longer' into next year, but it is objectively true that price-action is not currently supportive of that view - hence, above $110k we can be much more confident in price discovery above $125k into Q1. If we reject below last week's highs, potentially at the yearly VWAP at $101k, I could look to cover early there but I do think there's some squeeze potential here. A weekly close below the 2025 open at $93.3k would be a pretty clear signal for continuation lower.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that price ran higher off the 365d rolling VWAP, yearly VWAP and 360dMA last week, pushing up into $107.3k and rejecting at that prior range support turned resistance, then capitulating lower through the $98k support level into the 2025 open at $93.3k. Momentum is bearish with no signs of trend exhaustion just yet. What I think we could see early this week if the short squeeze is to play out is a run of the overnight low followed by a push back above $96k, where we would then expect at least $101kish to be retest given the huge confluence of support turned resistance there. As mentioned above, if we do then see signs of rejection and late longs into resistance, I would cover early rather than looking for $107k to be tagged again. If, instead, we get into that area and immediately reclaim it, that's a promising sign and I would expect the squeeze to accelerate and take out last week's high, where the reaction is obviously very important. Closing above last week's high would turn market structure bullish as well as reclaim multi-month range support, and that in turn would make $93.3k look like *the* bottom before new highs, in my opinion. If the major bounce is not to happen just yet, we should see $98k act as resistance early this week and price to close the daily below $93k subsequent to that rejection, where I would exit my $93.3k long early and await further price-action.
Looking at the potential setups for this week, if we do run that overnight low during today's NY session and then immediately get bid back up above the weekly open, that's a nice signal for a long at least into that $101k-$102k confluence where you could look to cover. Alternatively, if we don't run the low but hold above the weekly open during NY today, then you could bid the first ltf pullback above today's high with $92.9k as the invalidation:
On the short side, you want to see us rip higher without taking the overnight low and continue squeezing through overhead resistance into Wednesday, which may occur up near $107k (more favourable for high R/R shorts) or $102k if it's more of a grind higher, and then look to fade a breakdown after trend exhaustion appears. If we trade $107.3k and reject into NY Wednesday, that's probably getting you at least a $98k retest to fade into, where you could cover half in case a higher-low is forming with the rest TP'd at the lows:
And here's a snapshot of positioning across Velo and CoinGlass:
And here's 3-month annualized basis:
And Bitcoin OI vs Altcoin OI:
And finally some of the expected 1-week and 1-month liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $3200
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for ETH/USD, we can see that price rejected below $3700 at the weekly open, flipping that minor support into resistance and capitulating lower, below the prior weekly low right into the confluence of support at $3050, where the anchored VWAP from the Liberation Day lows, the 365d rolling VWAP and the yearly VWAP are sat, with the former of those having been closed marginally below. We are also below the 2025 open now and this is really the last stand zone for bullish structure from the April lows, with the untested prior resistance at $2850 the only level below that could mark out a durable low, in my view. If we lose $2850 I would then expect $2077 to be taken out, to be honest, and for us to trade back towards the $1750 level over the coming months. Whilst we are above this support zone, we kind of just look like we're in a more pronounced version of that range fakeout and spring into summer, where that $2077 swing-low formed. As such, I do think this is a high R/R area for a strong bounce on ETH, despite last week's close, but we would want to see that 2025 open reclaimed as support into end of Nov. If $3330 flips into resistance and we then break below $3000, there is only really $2850 stopping ETH from trading significantly lower.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we do have confirmed bullish divergence into this support cluster on ETH, showing some trend exhaustion after last week's leg lower without price having really made any further progress to the downside except to sweep the prior weekly low. Given all the above, and assuming the trend from the April lows remains intact, we could look for a swing long here below $3200 with a hard stop at ~$2260 but likely exiting on acceptance below $2850, with a view towards at least retesting the $4093 pivot - but, if we accept back above $4093, there would be scope for another leg higher through all-time highs towards $5870, which is a confluence of fibs. Obviously, very hard to imagine from here, but R/R is technically super tight as you would just jump ship on acceptance below $2850 (which was the prior range high from summer), and to validate this bullish divergence we would need to see daily RSI back above 50 as price turns daily structure bullish, which here would need a close above $3700, which was the swing-high that preceded this move lower. At that point, the $4093 retest would be on the cards and then we'd need to see reclaim for higher TPs to come into view but could trail the stop higher from there.
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Now, looking at ETH/BTC, to be honest it looks good here, with last week holding above reclaimed support and above the prior weekly low. (As an aside, this also makes me think that the ETH long could be a more favourable prospect than the BTC long here.) Weekly RSI is back to 50 and weekly structure is still bullish, which is supportive of further upside for the pair. What we need to see now is a move back above the yearly open at 0.0357, which would lead to that trendline retest and, in my opinion, a breakout and leg higher through 0.0417 towards 0.055. This remains my base case whilst the pair is holding above 0.0293. Below that, it looks like trash.
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that momentum looks to have bottomed out and is turning higher as price has reclaimed support at 0.0319. This is promising but trendline resistance continues to cap the rallies, alongside the 30d rolling VWAP, so we want to see a clean breakout above both of these this week, followed by a reclaim of the 2025 open. If, instead, we fake-out above the trendline, reject at the 2025 open and then break and close below 0.0319, I would be much less confident in this cluster of support above 0.0293 continuing to hold, so that is something I am watching and would have me bail on the ETH long idea (which I have not yet opened). Above the anchored VWAP from the yearly highs I think we have clear skies for that leg higher.
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Dollar Index:
Price: $98.99
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for the Dollar Index, we can see that price rejected where we expected post-Oct FOMC, with price holding below 100 and forming a swing-high after last week's close. We now need to see some follow-through into end of Nov, where some weakness in backward-looking data could provide the catalyst this week for downside. If we can close the week below support at 98.25, that would be a good start, with any weekly close below 97.5 looking super bearish. As has been the case for months, this broader view on the Dollar is invalidated on acceptance above 101.
Daily:
Looking now at the daily, we can see how momentum has returned to baseline and price has returned to local trendline support, so if the Dollar still has a bid left in it it is going to occur from here, where would then look for a lower-high formation below 100 and then led to a break and close below 98.6, followed by acceptance below 98.25 as confirmation of the top being in. If we get that bounce but price breaks and closes above 100 without any trend exhaustion, no doubt we get the squeeze higher into 101, which I believe should cap the rally if DXY still has another leg lower in it rather than a cyclical bottom being marked out.
Gold:
Price: $4082
Weekly:
Looking at Gold on the weekly timeframe, we can see that price pushed higher off support last week as anticipated but rejected at $4245, potentially forming that complacency shoulder I discussed a couple of weeks ago. That high occurred right at the all-time high weekly close, so as long as we do not close the weekly above $4245 now we should expect continuation lower and more consolidation. If we do close the weekly above $4245, we can start thinking about price discovery. I am looking to sell rallies towards last week's high this week, with a view to holding shorts for a run of the $3877 lows. I may take this on GDX instead depending on how things look. Mid-term view on Gold remains a period of sideways between $3700ish and the highs for several weeks longer at least, though as stated above I will flip to a bullish bias on a weekly close above $4245.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see how last week's rally did kind of look like a complacency shoulder, but one thing to keep in mind here is we are now retesting prior resistance as support from above, along with some key VWAPS. Shorting into $4050 doesn't really make any sense to me. We want to see a push towards last week's high to look for shorts with a possibility of adding on acceptance below $4045, with $3877 as a first TP, followed by $3790. Once we get below $3800, I don't think short Gold is favourable at all, instead expecting chop and time capitulation from there...
SPX
Price: $6757
Weekly:
So, last week felt like a wild one for SPX, but if we begin by looking at the weekly timeframe, we can see that what actually happened was an inside week - we held within the prior weekly high and low. We remain above trendline support and we closed marginally above prior resistance turned support. Given all of this in conjunction with the stacked calendar this week, it's pretty clear that price-action over the next few days into the close will be important. If we close this week below $6632, I think the odds of a year-end rally are greatly diminished and we probably take out the $6520 lows before a durable low forms for a retest of all-time highs. If that does occur, I will be cutting my levered equity exposure from April and awaiting more structure to form before reallocating. If instead we either hold above or sweep last week's low and then close green on the week, I would expect price to push towards the highs next week into the first week of Dec, with acceptance above $6930 opening up a FOMO rally into year-end.
Daily:
Looking at the daily timeframe, we can see that momentum has reset here as price held up above the 90d rolling VWAP. This has marked the lows on recent tests and is confluent with key support, so if we do flip it into resistance this week that's a pretty clear signal to bail on levered equity exposure. If the lows hold firm and we are simply marking out a bottom like in October, we should see the anchored VWAP from the all-time high at $6795 give way this week, with a daily close above the lower-high at $6883 confirming continuation through all-time highs towards $7059 as the 100% extension of the current trend. Pretty clear levels to pay attention to this week.
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
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